FOR many months, there have been stories and rumours about new political parties being formed, whether members of the current ‘Madani’ coalition remain intact or face the voters separately, and when the general election (GE16) will actually be called.

Over the last weekend, these questions have been firmly answered.

Now Malaysians can see a clear electoral landscape forming and see how Malaysia’s political direction may look.

For the last month, there have been several direct hints about Umno’s intentions concerning the ‘Madani’ coalition.

Last month, 14 Negeri Sembilan Umno state assemblymen withdrew support for the current PKR Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.

This action greatly destabilised the state government, sending rumblings to the federal Madani coalition in Putrajaya. Then late last week, the Johor Menteri Besar said that Umno plans to contest all 56 state seats solo.

This abruptly spelt the end of the effectiveness of the ‘Madani’ coalition. It’s now clear that Umno in both Melaka and Johor are planning to call elections in each state in the next four months.

GE16 pressure on Anwar

It’s also very clear that Umno is already in deep preparation for elections, and this is putting pressure upon the prime minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, to call an early election, perhaps in the next few months.

On Sunday, Anwar said that a snap general election could take place if cracks continue to form within the unity government.

On another front, former ministers Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad both announced they are taking over Parti Bersama Malaysia and resigned from PKR.

Also present at the announcement were PKR MPs Wong Chen (Subang), Datuk Muhammad Bakhtiar Wan Chik (Balik Pulau), Rodziah Ismail (Ampang), Zahir Hassan (Wangsa Maju) and Lee Chean Chung (Petaling Jaya).

However, they have not made any formal commitments either way at this stage.

In another move on the Perikatan Nasional side, PAS announced the current Terengganu Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, as the new leader of the opposition.

Samsuri, known as a moderate, now puts PAS at the head of PN, which has long been suspected, due to the current political infighting in Bersatu.

The new political fault-lines

The weekend’s events now show a much clearer position of where politics will go in the peninsula.

PN under Samsuri is expected to showcase ‘PAS as a safe choice’ for voters.

PAS can be expected to go back to the days of the late Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat and Datuk Fadzil Mohd Noor, where it will show itself as an alternative to ‘Madani’.

More time will show the PAS’s approach to the coming election.

Umno is preparing to repackage itself as a competent party ready to run government as a ‘professional administration’ based on history and traditions.

There are strong rumours that a group within Umno is working very hard to gain a full pardon for Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who would be a ‘Trump card’.

Many in Umno believe that a free Najib would be able to make inroads back into the Malay heartlands once again.

One can only assume that Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi’s Parti Bersama Malaysia will attempt to outdo ‘reformasi’ Pakatan Harapan.

This appears to be their strategy to entice potential voter support from citizens who were planning not to vote in the coming GE, which is believed to be plenty.

Rafizi and Nik Nazmi

The key for Rafizi and Nik Nazmi will be to quickly snowball the party membership with ‘high calibre’ recruits to convince voters to come out and support the ‘old reformasi culture’ which it intends to hijack from PH.

The bottom line for Parti Bersama Malaysia will be having many personalities who bring trust.

Released electoral analysis reports have already indicated that PKR will be in for a very challenging election, where the same could be said for the other two components, DAP and Amanah.

The first important mission will be to mend the parties within PH back together and prevent the DAP from considering going alone, which many members want.

PKR must then develop a very sincere strategy conveying a narrative that it acted on behalf of a ‘unity government’ set-up and affirmed by the YDPA back in November 2022.

PKR must clearly argue that a fully mandated PH government would do things very differently.

It’s going to be very difficult for political pundits to pick any clear winners in the coming general election, at least on the Peninsula side.

One will have to expect mostly four-cornered fights in each seat, and how the vote dissipates among candidates will be very difficult to predict. Personalities will be very important.

Once again, there will be another coalition after the coming election. No one today can predict what it will look like. – NMH

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared in The Vibes. Re-published with permission from the writer.

Also read:

PKR Fracture Proves the Reformasi Promise Was Never More Than a Slogan

Johor Polls: Can BN Win Big Without The Najib Factor?

Jho Low vs Murray Hunter: A Question of Priorities

The post GE16: Electoral Landscape Looking Clearer As Polls Draw Nearer first appeared on NMH.

As the Covid-19 pandemic is becoming endemic, the actions and decisions made by key government members at the time, must be reviewed. (Editor’s note: With an intro like that, it is no wonder that it was the most read article by Murray Hunter as citizens the world over share the same views about their respective governments pertaining to the MCOs and the Vaccines.)

According to government statistics, the Covid-19 pandemic tragically cost the lives of more than 36,000 Malaysians. We are now seeing the collateral damage resulting from the Movement Control Orders (MCOs), which include growing poverty and business bankruptcies. The number of households in abject poverty, rose from 27,158 in 2019 to 136,000 in 2022.

This should be a major concern for the current government.

With Covid-19 relief packages amounting to over RM 600 billion over the last three years, public debt rose to 61.3 percent of GDP, as at September 2022. Money supply increased 25 percent over the pandemic, resulting in a leap in inflation, particularly hitting the food sector hard.

There are a number of issues related to the management of the Covid-19 pandemic that should not be let pass.

Corruption and Leakage of Funds

Nearly RM 600 billion was used by the former Muhyiddin Yassin government, to procure items required for the management of Covid-19 and provide financial relief to assist citizens, between 2020-2022. Due to the existence of an emergency decree, much for the RM 600 billion was spent outside the purview of cabinet.

Last December, prime minister Anwar Ibrahim broke the news that there were ‘serious breaches of procedure’ in government spending during that time.

Anwar elaborated upon these breaches of procedure, stating that money was laundered through crony companies, which acted as Ali Baba or middle-men between the government and contractor and suppliers. These procurements were made well above prevailing market rates.

Anwar said some of these funds were used by Perikatan Nasional during the GE15 campaign.

The Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) opened up an investigation early December and found RM 300 million in the Bersatu central bank account. We still don’t know how much was in state branch and individual accounts.

Bad planning or intended over purchasing?

Rationale of the MCOs

Muhyiddin proclaimed a number of MCOs during the pandemic, in an attempt to stem the spread of the Covid-19 virus through the community. These draconian measures caused much collateral damage, even preventing those who needed medical treatment from seeking it. Serious mental health issues grew within the community, with increased family abuse. Financial damage was extensive.

Kita mudah lupa (We easily forget).

The scientific rationale for the MCOs must be released to the public for transparency. People have suffered and need to know that the home isolation really did play some positive role in the fight against Covid-19. Otherwise, the MCOs were an abuse of power by the then sitting government.

Muhyiddin and the director general of the ministry of health, Nor Hisham Abdullah must advise what information they acted upon.

Were the MCOs based upon firm scientific assessment, or were they based upon a whim of following other countries in a blind manner?

This shouldn’t be allowed to happen. Where did RM 600 billion really go?

Procurement of the Vaccines

More and more evidence is emerging by the day, that pharmaceutical companies paid governments and officials to secure the sale of their vaccines. In the light of growing evidence, the vaccine procurement process requires a thorough review, and explanation by the then health minister Khairy Jamaluddin and DG of the Health ministry Nor Hisham Abdullah.

Many pregnant women and their off-spring are suffering adverse effects now. Pfizer cautions pregnant women over the vaccine.

Vaccine safety issues and the role of the National Pharmaceutical Regulatory Authority (NPRA)

Independent reappraisal of Pfizer vaccine trial data has found that 1 person in 800 is likely experiencing adverse side effects from the vaccine.

It is necessary to review how the NPRA came to approve the use of the Pfizer vaccine upon the general population of Malaysia. Once again, the DG of health Nor Hisham must answer this query.

It must also be noted that the present (then) minister of health Dr Zaliha Mustafa is still promoting vaccines to Malaysia’s general population, even though the extent of adverse side effects is now clearly known from recent scientific data on mRNA vaccines. Pfizer in a press release on 27 January have also raised these concerns and put question upon about the efficacy of their own product.

Why hasn’t the current minister of health (at the time of publication, Zaliha was the Minister of Health, it has now changed to Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad) revised her recommendation in the light of this new information emerging? The UK government has quietly dispensed with its mRNA vaccination program, and the Thai government is in discussion to make their contract null and void with Pfizer, over safety issues.

The safety of Malaysians must be Dr Zaliha’s prime consideration.

The magnitude of alleged corruption during the Covid-19 crisis, makes this the largest financial scandal Malaysia has ever seen. It is almost five times larger than the 1MDB scandal. The rationale behind the MCOs needs an urgent explanation, given the rise in government debt, and the hardship suffered by people across the country. Finally, the dealings done between government and the pharmaceutical companies needs to be investigated by the MACC.

The use of mRNA vaccines needs another review to keep Malaysians safe.

There is an urgent need for a Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) into these matters, which have done so much damage to the nation. Anything less than an RCI is a cover up to protect those who managed the pandemic. – Murray Hunter (lifted from the original article with minor editions.)

The post Vaccines And MCO: A Scandal Many Magnitudes Greater Than 1MDB first appeared on NMH.

Many cannot understand why Najib Razak, convicted and jailed on corruption charges, remains so popular with the electorate.

Although he is now incarcerated at Kajang prison, he is still very much part of the upcoming general election (GE15), through his massive social media presence.

Whether Najib plays a major role in the elections, or becomes just a marginal sideshow, brings to the fore an issue that many leaning towards the opposition do not see.

Malay politics will be the cornerstone of the outcome of the general election. Around 40% of the 222 seats in the Dewan Rakyat can be considered to be from the Malay heartland, while some 51% of Malaysia’s population are classified as Malay.

The winner of the coming election will be the party or party grouping that best understands the Malay heartland. This is primarily Umno’s stronghold.

The Logic of Corruption

Many see corruption as a serious crime that is morally repugnant. They cannot understand why corrupt politicians can be accepted and even admired.

People in the Malay heartland have a different view of corruption. A political leader helping a friend in trouble with a government contract is considered a noble act, not an act of corruption.

One Umno MP is regularly seen by many within his electorate as a “Robinhood” character: he reportedly travels around the state handing out gifts and money, supporting orphanages, visiting hospitals, and making donations to mosques.

The 1MDB financial scandal is extremely complex and understood by very few. Najib’s jailing is seen by many as a selective and political prosecution, contrived by Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who is perceived as having also unjustly jailed Anwar Ibrahim more than 20 years ago.

Thus, the issue of justice for politicians is seen as political rather than judicial. Thus, Najib is seen as a political prisoner, and not as a felon.

How many voters think along these lines will be partly understood from the election results.

It will not be easy to overcome the “adat” (custom), that “pemimpin” (leaders) can do no wrong, and should be respected. Malaysia has the widest power-distance relationships in the world.

Corruption, especially within government institutions, is regularly covered up. Those who expose corruption publicly can be seen as rebelling against Malay cultural norms. This is why corruption will not be a major issue within the Malay heartland.

Pushing these issues too hard might even be counter-productive.

Malay Social Identity

There are three major aspects to Malay social identity: the monarchy, religion and language.

The dominating aspect of Malay social identity is Islam, which defines how a Malay sees the world. Many believe being a Muslim is more important than being a Malaysian. Anything outside this view can be seen as threatening.

Secular politics doesn’t work in the Malay heartland as it conflicts with the views of Malay social identity. Any arguments that Malays will be better off under a secular government will be viewed with suspicion.

To win the Malay heartland, one has to be Islamic. This is the prime battlefield for hearts and minds. Mahathir has played this card for decades.

The DAP has long been portrayed as the bogeyman, and an enemy of an Islamic way of life. This has been a winning political narrative.

Umno has branded itself as the party that looked after the interests of the Malays. Umno gained independence for Malays, developed the kampongs, provided schooling, and defends Islam.

Umno uses the narrative of gratitude, an important trait in Malay culture.

What Do Heartland Voters Really Want?

Malay culture and perspectives have been socially engineered over decades to create a need for protection.

Umno has become the protector against the ‘evil forces’ aimed at changing the Malay way of life. Umno plays the role of provider. Infrastructure, education, health, and even the haj. Local MPs are facilitators and problem-solvers for their constituents.

Some can see through these narratives, and this is why PKR is able to develop some degree of support. This is a growing trend, but ever so slowly.

However, the young are not jumping on board, as many had assumed, because they see the world through the Malay social identity.

The Malay heartland is far from homogenous. Umno’s arch nemesis PAS has broken into Umno’s strongholds, where there are now Umno and PAS kampongs existing side by side.

This even filters down to mosques, where some mosques become Umno mosques and others have become PAS mosques. Divisions in support for Umno and PAS have split apart families.

The arrival of Bersatu in the Malay heartland has also split support. Bersatu has soaked up those who were for many reasons dissatisfied with Umno. Bersatu has become a flag of convenience, rather than a sign of any new ideological direction within the Malay heartland.

Many pundits believe Bersatu may be wiped out this election, with support reconsolidating behind Umno, once again.

Can the Opposition Penetrate the Heartland?

This is the question many are considering right now. There are some who believe issues of corruption will sway voters in this election.

However, based on the concepts within Malay social identity, it’s difficult to see how the voters within the Malay heartland will be persuaded by exposures of corruption and wrongdoing by politicians in office.

If there is going to be any change, it must be generational with the youth.

However, this will not be easy, as the younger generation has been educated within a system reinforcing Malay social identity. Many are even more religious than their parents and grandparents.

The opposition must learn that even Bersatu, a Malay-centric party, could not penetrate deeply into the Malay heartland. Last general election it very much relied on the help of Pakatan Harapan.

A new generation of PH politicians needs to engage the youth within the paradigm of Malay social identity.

This is not going to happen in the coming general election. It will take a generation. However, the aspiration for secular politics within the Malay heartland is a tall order, unless some charismatic visionary politician arrives on the scene.

This is an issue for the new generation of PH politicians.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of NMH.

Article published with permission. This article previously appeared in FMT.

The post The Psychology Of The Malay Heartland first appeared on NMH.