British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would have done better in UK 2024 if he had pushed through legislation in Parliament on runoff if there were more than two parties in the fray in any seat!
Commentary and Analysis . . . It’s true that people get the government they deserve. Still, the British people could have done better on UK 2024 on 4 July.
The figures and further analysis on UK 2024 can be found in the following link: Majority Without a Mandate
The following links degenerate into looks on the British election: Who won the popular vote? A breakdown of the main parties
Ideally, voters should pick party/candidate, not vote against party/candidate. Those supporters against the government party/candidate should stay at home lest the Opposition party/candidate wins by default.
Likewise, supporters against the Opposition party/candidate should stay at home, lest the government party/candidate wins by default.
The issue that emerges from the UK general election remains the lack of the consent of the governed for legitimacy.
Many seats were declared although no one collected at least 51 per cent of the votes counted.
There should be runoff between the top two contenders in the seats where no one obtained at least 51 per cent of the votes counted.
The 1st past the post voting system only works when there are two parties/pre-election coalition in the fray.
Voters who were against the Tories, but not for Labour, should have stayed at home.
UK 2024
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, an econometrist, would have done better in UK 2024 if he had pushed through legislation in Parliament on runoff if there were more than two parties in the fray in any seat.
Man does not live by bread alone. It’s principles that matter.
It has been estimated that the Reform Party in the UK, for example, would have collected 100 seats if there had been runoff. The party won only four seats on 4 July 2024.
Runoff will not only ensure no landslide but makes government with majority even more difficult and minority government the reality.
The caretaker Prime Minister, being incumbent, will head minority government. Legislation needs the support of the Opposition unless quorum with more government MP present was sufficient for passage in Parliament.
The 1st past the post system only works if there are only two parties in the fray in any seat. In Europe, pre-election coalition was considered undemocratic.
There are parallels between the UK 2024 election, GE15 in Malaysia in late November 2022 and Modi 2024 in India in June 2024. There are no runoffs in all three countries. The Labour Party, under the 1st past the post system, came in with “landslide” on 4 July 2024 i.e. more than 400 seats.
GE15
In Malaysia, no party/coalition secured majority in GE15. The Agong decreed unity government. Perikatan Nasional (PN), in rejecting Agong’s decree on unity government, sits in the Opposition with 72 Muslim MP — i.e. before defection — and two Orang Asal from Sabah and Sarawak.
PN claimed majority in GE15 after collecting SD (Statutory Declaration) from Sabah and Sarawak.
Agong was left with no choice but appoint opposition parliamentary leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim as Prime Minister based on the Decree that “SD was no proof of support”.
In India, Modi 2024 did not see the BJP landslide predicted by pollsters who were only right in 2019. All exit polls, unlike in UK 2024, were proven wrong.
Instead, despite the 1st past the post system, the result in India was like in Malaysia in GE14. No party secured majority on its own. However, BJP was in pre-election coalition and secured comfortable majority in Modi 2024.
In Malaysia, pre-election coalition did not ensure majority in GE15 for any coalition.
Runoff System
It’s unlikely that Malaysia and India would bring in the runoff system.
In the UK, the first past the post system would only be observed with caveats if the people demand the runoff system as well.
The Constitution, which calls for electoral integrity, cannot be seen as going against itself.
The Constitution, Parliament, and the court of law — colour blind institutions — cannot get into “race”, religion, theology, DNA, and geographical origin, among others.
In GE14 on 9 May 2018, in digressing a little, no party in Malaysia secured majority but the outgoing Barisan Nasional (BN) had the largest number in Parliament. There was breach of Protocol and convention when Caretaker Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak wasn’t invited by the Istana on having first go at forming government. This incident wasn’t surprising. The people aren’t noted for any great ability on counting and/or buying at loss and selling at profit.
Indeed, in further breach, Najib wasn’t even invited by the Istana for offering formal resignation.
Chaos
The UK will probably be in economic chaos for the next one year. In that case, the Labour government under Keir Starmer will collapse and implode.
Econometrics — combination of economics, mathematical directions and statistics — and banking and finance have since become easier with AI. There are mathematical directions on the behaviour of forces in nature.
Most of the subject matter experts in econometrics can be found at the IMF and World Bank, among others.
Labour may have economists, but not econometrists, coming out of its ears.
Having said that, these Labour economists may not speak up and speak out, or would be disregarded and/or rejected without explanation by government, if otherwise.
The UK, at the moment, isn’t plugged into any major economy post-Brexit.
Japan, for example, has been in and out of deflation for decades. Deflation has shrunk the Japanese GDP. India will overtake the Japanese economy this year and Germany after that. It has already overtaken the UK.
The UK should plug into the Indian economy for both India and the world. However, the relationship between India and the UK has never been worse.
India isn’t factory of the world. Eighty per cent of India’s economy was internal and more than 50 per cent consumption based.
Factory of the World
China remains factory of the world and the economy less than 50 per cent consumption based. The domestic consumption economy in China has been lagging and the export-led economy has been badly hit by tariffs in India, America and the EU. Ironically, tariffs are paid by consumers in the importing country. It can only make the government, based on bad business practices, even richer.
China risks going in and out of deflation. The phenomenon has plagued Japan for many years. Deflation means low domestic consumption. That shrinks the GDP.
Japan has been in and out of deflation for decades. It has been reported that India will overtake the Japanese economy this year and Germany after that. It has already overtaken the UK.
China expert and former Harvard University Economics Professor Dr Subramaniam Swamy, who cautioned India against emulating China, said “the China story was over”.
He urged that India should pace America on innovations since it adds most for GDP growth and enlarging the GDP.
Innovations, new way of doing old things, was brought by technology which follows creativity and inventiveness.
Dr Subramaniam remains elected member of the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of Parliament, in India. — NMH
Related Internal Links . . .
Longtime Borneo watcher Joe Fernandez has been writing for many years on both sides of the Southeast Asia Sea. He should not be mistaken for a namesake formerly with the Daily Express in Kota Kinabalu. JF keeps a Blog under FernzTheGreat on the nature of human relationships.
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