SEREMBAN — Come Saturday, 1 August, 889,490 voters in Negeri Sembilan will decide who governs the state for the next five years.

But this election is increasingly about something much bigger than Negeri Sembilan

Less than three weeks after Pakatan Harapan (PH) suffered a bruising defeat in Johor, the contest for Negeri Sembilan has become another test of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s political coalition — and, perhaps more significantly, of the arrangement that has kept former rivals PH and Barisan Nasional (BN) together in Putrajaya since the hung Parliament of 2022.

The numbers alone make Saturday worth watching.

PH is contesting all 36 seats. BN is fielding candidates in 25, while Perikatan Nasional (PN) is contesting the remaining 11 under an electoral understanding designed to avoid clashes between the two.

Bersatu, following its rupture with its former allies, is fighting separately.

It is a dramatically different political landscape from 2023, when PH and BN went into the state election as partners and together won 31 of the 36 seats — PH taking 17 and BN 14.

Three years later, they are rivals in Negeri Sembilan even as their leaders continue sitting around the same Cabinet table in Putrajaya.

And BN has found another partner.

Negeri Sembilan Tests a New BN-PN Alliance

The significance of the BN-PN understanding goes beyond seat allocations.

For the first time since the formation of the Unity Government, Negeri Sembilan offers a real-world test of what happens when BN competes alongside PN rather than PH.

Former Bangi MP and political analyst Ong Kian Ming has argued that the arrangement makes a BN-PN state government highly likely, estimating that their combined Malay support could exceed 70 per cent if vote transfers work as expected.

Bersatu could complicate that equation by splitting votes in some constituencies, while turnout — particularly among non-Malay voters and those working in the Klang Valley — could prove decisive.

Nothing, therefore, is guaranteed.

But politically, the experiment matters even before the result is known.

For nearly four years, the central assumption behind the Unity Government has been that PH and BN, despite decades of rivalry, need each other to provide the parliamentary numbers and political breadth required to govern.

Negeri Sembilan poses an uncomfortable alternative.

What if BN has another option?

If BN and PN can avoid fighting each other, transfer votes effectively and form a government together, Saturday’s election may provide more than a new administration for Negeri Sembilan.

It could provide a template.

Johor Was the Warning

The timing could hardly be more consequential for PH.

On 11 July, BN swept Johor, winning 48 of the 56 state seats. PH was reduced from 12 seats to eight, while PN lost all three seats it previously held.

The result did not threaten Anwar’s parliamentary majority. State elections do not change the numbers in the Dewan Rakyat.

Politically, however, Johor demonstrated something important: BN could win overwhelmingly while fighting its federal partner.

BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi celebrated the result by expressing hope that the victory would trigger a “blue wave” across other states.

Three weeks later, that wave arrives at Negeri Sembilan’s doorstep.

But the equation here is different.

In Johor, BN showed it could beat PH.

In Negeri Sembilan, it may show it can replace PH — with PN beside it.

That distinction could prove far more important to Putrajaya.

Two Strikes for Anwar?

If PH retains Negeri Sembilan, Anwar will have an argument that Johor was exactly what BN said it was: a state-specific contest fought on BN’s strongest terrain.

If PH loses, that argument becomes harder to sustain.

Two major defeats within weeks — particularly if the second delivers power to an electoral combination involving BN and PN — would inevitably raise questions about the political direction of the country ahead of the 16th General Election.

The question would no longer simply be whether PH and BN can remain together in Putrajaya.

It would be whether they still want to.

For BN, a victory on Saturday could strengthen the argument that the coalition has recovered enough ground to negotiate the next phase of Malaysian politics from a position of greater strength.

For PN, cooperation with BN offers a possible route into government that does not depend on defeating UMNO for dominance of the Malay electorate.

And for PH, the danger is more fundamental.

If its federal partner can defeat it in one state and potentially form a government with its federal opponent in another, what exactly does the Unity Government represent once the country enters full election mode?

The arrangement created after GE15 delivered something Malaysia badly needed after years of political instability: a functioning government and a degree of continuity.

But political arrangements built from necessity are tested when that necessity begins to disappear.

Saturday may tell us whether that moment is approaching.

And Then There Is the Palace

Yet even if voters deliver a clear majority, Negeri Sembilan faces another question altogether.

Who appoints and swears in the next Menteri Besar?

The state enters polling day amid an unprecedented royal dispute following the April declaration by the Undang Yang Empat that Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir had been removed as Yang di-Pertuan Besar and that Tunku Nadzaruddin Tuanku Ja’afar had been chosen in his place.

Tuanku Muhriz, however, has continued to perform royal functions. It was with his consent that the State Legislative Assembly was dissolved on 5 June, paving the way for Saturday’s election.

The dispute is rooted in Negeri Sembilan’s unique constitutional monarchy and Adat Perpatih, under which the Yang di-Pertuan Besar is elected by the four Undang rather than inheriting the throne through straightforward primogeniture.

But what began as a royal and constitutional confrontation has already crossed into electoral politics.

UMNO’s 14 assemblymen withdrew their support for then-Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun amid the fallout from the royal confrontation, setting in motion the political crisis that eventually led to the early dissolution of an assembly whose term was not due to expire until 2028.

Now the election may settle the political numbers without settling the constitutional dispute.

The Negeri Sembilan Constitution provides for the appointment of a Menteri Besar who commands the confidence of the majority in the State Legislative Assembly.

Under ordinary circumstances, what follows polling day is clear.

The results establish a majority. A leader emerges. The ruler appoints the Menteri Besar, who takes the oath of office.

Not Ordinary

But these are anything but ordinary circumstances.

If PH wins a majority, who formally appoints Aminuddin — assuming he remains its choice for Menteri Besar?

If BN-PN wins, before whom does its nominee present himself?

And what happens if competing claims to the throne produce competing assertions of constitutional authority?

These are questions the ballot box cannot answer.

Saturday may determine who has the democratic mandate to govern Negeri Sembilan.

It may not determine how that mandate is constitutionally translated into government.

Melaka Is Already Waiting

Whatever happens in Negeri Sembilan, the political calendar does not stop on 1 August.

Melaka is next in the conversation.

PH confirmed earlier this month that it was withdrawing from the BN-led Melaka state administration following disagreement over constitutional amendments allowing the appointment of nominated assemblymen.

Its five assemblymen withdrew from the state government, while PH representatives in local councils and village committees were instructed to vacate their posts effective 31 July — one day before Negeri Sembilan votes.

The symbolism is difficult to miss.

At federal level, PH and BN govern together.

In Johor, they fought each other.

In Negeri Sembilan, BN is cooperating electorally with PN against PH.

In Melaka, PH has walked out of a BN-led state administration.

The Unity Government remains intact in Putrajaya, but outside Putrajaya its component parties increasingly look like competitors preparing for an election.

That raises a question Anwar may soon have to confront.

Why wait?

Is GE16 Moving Closer?

The next general election is not required until 2028, but speculation over an earlier contest has been building for months.

Anwar himself said in May that an early election could be considered if tensions within the governing alliance continued to widen.

Johor has since delivered BN a landslide.

Negeri Sembilan could hand BN-PN another victory.

Melaka is moving towards its own state election, while Sarawak must also return to the polls.

Individually, none of these developments requires GE16 to be called.

Together, however, they could change the calculation.

A government considering an early election has to ask two questions: whether waiting improves its prospects, and whether events are beginning to move beyond its control.

For PH, a victory in Negeri Sembilan could halt the narrative created by Johor and allow Anwar to argue that the coalition remains competitive beyond its urban strongholds.

A defeat would do the opposite.

It could embolden BN, encourage further cooperation between BN and PN, deepen questions within PH about the value of its federal arrangement, and turn the coming Melaka and Sarawak elections into further tests of Anwar’s national standing.

It could also revive discussion over whether some of those contests should be brought into a broader election window, potentially alongside GE16.

Synchronising elections is not simply a matter of political convenience. Different state assemblies operate according to their own constitutional timelines, and dissolution ultimately involves their respective heads of state.

Sarawak, too, operates within its own distinct political ecosystem, and there is no certainty that its leadership would see advantage in aligning its election with contests in the peninsula.

But politically, the question is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.

Malaysia has spent much of 2026 moving from one political contest to another.

At some point, the temptation may be to settle the larger question.

Beyond Negeri Sembilan

That is why Saturday matters.

Negeri Sembilan’s 889,490 voters are not voting on Anwar Ibrahim’s premiership. They are choosing 36 state assemblymen.

Nor would a BN-PN victory automatically bring down the Federal Government.

Anwar’s government stands or falls according to confidence in the Dewan Rakyat, not the outcome of a state election.

But elections create political momentum long before they alter parliamentary arithmetic.

Johor demonstrated BN’s strength.

Negeri Sembilan could test whether that strength can be combined with PN’s support base to create an alternative political arrangement.

Melaka may then test whether PH and BN can continue their federal partnership while increasingly competing against each other at state level.

And somewhere beyond all three lies GE16.

On Saturday night, Malaysians may know who has won Negeri Sembilan.

They may even have a clearer idea of where Malaysian politics is heading next.

But the state itself could wake up on Sunday to an extraordinary constitutional question that the election has not resolved: who has the authority to appoint and swear in the next Menteri Besar?

While Negeri Sembilan must still decide who has the constitutional authority to appoint the government its voters have chosen, the irony is hard to miss: the country’s second-smallest state may yet have a very big say in what happens next in Putrajaya. – NMH

The post Negeri Sembilan Poll: The Vote That Could Shake Putrajaya first appeared on NMH.

KUALA LUMPUR, Sunday, 12 July 2026 – With Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi now sworn in as Johor Menteri Besar, the election itself has passed into history. What remains, however, is the political message delivered by Johor voters — a message that extends far beyond the state’s borders. This was not merely an election to choose a government. It was a referendum on the leadership, priorities and direction of the Federal Government.

The Johor election was never just about Johor.

It evolved into the clearest referendum yet on the leadership of Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and the direction of the Federal Government.

The message from voters was emphatic.

As commentator Sara Petra aptly observed: “2018, rakyat mengundi harapan. 2026, rakyat memberi hukuman.”

Whether one agrees with that sentiment or not, the scale of Barisan Nasional’s victory cannot simply be dismissed as a routine state election result.

Many BN candidates not only retained their seats but significantly increased their winning majorities, with some doubling or even tripling their previous margins. Even MIC, often portrayed as politically weakened in recent years, won all four seats it contested.

These were not marginal victories.

They represented a decisive shift in voter sentiment.

Johor PRN More Than a Political Contest

For months, the national political conversation had been dominated by personalities, court cases and political narratives.

Johor voters appeared to have other priorities.

Across coffee shops, markets and neighbourhoods, conversations were less about political rhetoric and more about daily survival.

The rising cost of food.

Electricity bills.

School expenses.

Housing.

Running a small business.

The question many ordinary Malaysians asked was remarkably simple:

“How does all this political drama help me pay my bills next month?”

Politics is ultimately won in kitchens, not on social media.

When families struggle with their household budgets, campaign slogans lose their appeal.

Cost of Living Became the Real Campaign

In 2018, Pakatan Harapan successfully convinced Malaysians that change was necessary.

Eight years later, many voters appear to be asking whether that promise has translated into better lives.

Businesses today face increasing compliance obligations, including e-Invoicing implementation, withholding tax issues and additional regulatory requirements. E-hailing drivers have voiced concerns over rising operational costs, while many small and medium enterprises argue that compliance has become increasingly burdensome.

Whether every policy is justified economically is another debate.

Politically, however, perception matters.

Many voters believe government has become more focused on regulations than on reducing the everyday burdens faced by ordinary Malaysians.

That perception proved costly.

Campaign Miscalculations

Another significant factor was the tone adopted during the campaign.

Attempts to portray Onn Hafiz as inexperienced or dismiss him as merely a “budak-budak” appeared to backfire.

Rather than weakening him, such attacks arguably united Johoreans behind their Menteri Besar.

Voters generally dislike what they perceive as arrogance.

Campaigns that underestimate opponents often end up energising their support.

Likewise, repeated attempts to frame the election around Datuk Seri Najib Razak and Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor appeared increasingly disconnected from the immediate concerns of many Johor voters.

Whether supporters or critics of Najib agree, many Malaysians seem ready to move beyond years of political fixation on personalities and court battles.

Their priorities have shifted.

They are asking about inflation.

Jobs.

Economic security.

Public services.

Perceptions of Arrogance

Perhaps the most damaging political perception confronting Pakatan Harapan—and particularly DAP—is the growing belief among many voters that parts of the coalition have become increasingly dismissive of opposing views and overly confident that public support would remain intact.

Politics punishes complacency.

When voters believe their concerns are being dismissed, elections become opportunities to register dissatisfaction.

Johor appears to have become precisely that.

For many BN supporters, the election result also reflected unease over broader national issues, including debates involving the Malay Rulers, matters affecting Malay-Muslim interests and policies perceived as insufficiently sensitive to longstanding cultural and religious concerns.

Whether these perceptions are entirely accurate is less important politically than the fact that they exist.

Successful governments ignore public sentiment at their own peril.

A Lesson Beyond Johor

Johor should not be viewed as an isolated state election.

It is an early political warning.

Governments that fail to address bread-and-butter issues inevitably face electoral consequences.

The ballot box remains the rakyat’s most powerful instrument.

Johor demonstrated that voters are prepared to travel home, queue for hours and cast their ballots when they believe the stakes are high.

Not because they are instructed to do so.

Not because they are rewarded.

But because they want their voices heard.

The Road Ahead

For Barisan Nasional, victory in Johor is encouraging but should not become an excuse for complacency.

For Pakatan Harapan, the result offers an opportunity for honest reflection.

Election victories and defeats are temporary.

Public trust is not.

If Johor’s message is understood, there remains time for course correction.

If it is dismissed as merely another state election, Putrajaya risks discovering that Johor was not an exception—but the beginning of a larger political trend.

In the end, democracies have a simple way of correcting governments that lose touch with the people.

They vote. – NMH

The post Opinion | Johor PRN Verdict: A Warning Putrajaya Can No Longer Ignore first appeared on NMH.

Johor voters have seen this movie before. DAP wins big, then confuses a mandate with ownership.

In 2022 they swept 10 seats in Johor on the back of anti Barisan Nasional (BN) sentiment.

Fast forward to 2025, and the script has flipped. After Sabah showed DAP losing every seat they contested, the same arrogance that cost them there is now on display in Johor.

The difference is simple: DAP brings perspective, Onn Hafiz brings performance.

DAP’s Perspective Problem And Failure Of Delivery

DAP in Johor still acts like it is 2018. The messaging is national, the tone is top down, and the ground work is missing.

Seats like Skudai were won with 27k majorities because voters wanted change, not because they signed up for permanent DAP rule.

Four years later, that same seat faces traffic congestion at Taman Universiti, flood mitigation delays in Kempas, and business licence bottlenecks that kill small traders.

The answer from DAP? More press statements, less site visits.

That is arrogance, assuming the 2022 majority is transferable without delivery. Sabah proved it is not.

When a party mistakes presence on social media for presence in the constituency, voters notice.

Constituency service centres that were promised to be open daily are staffed part time.

Resident complaints on drainage, street lighting and illegal dumping get redirected to the local council with no follow up.

Townhall sessions are rare, and when they happen they feel like ceramah, not problem solving.

That is the arrogance of incumbency: we won, so you will wait.

Dapsy’s Arrogance On Full Display

If DAP Johor is detached, Dapsy Johor is worse. Dapsy leaders in the state talk like they own the future of Johor, but their track record is thin.

Instead of fixing potholes or helping traders, Dapsy lecture voters on national ideology and party doctrine.

Dapsy leaders’ Social media posts attack political opponents, but rarely show ground programmes that solve local problems.

The arrogance is in the tone. Dapsy Johor speaks down to voters, dismisses criticism as “cybertrooper” or “political”, and assumes young voters will fall in line because of party brand.

Sabah should have been a warning. Young voters rejected Dapsy candidates there because they saw no work on the ground, only noise online.

Johor Dapsy is repeating the same mistake. Brand is not a substitute for boots on the ground. Arrogance is not a strategy.

How DAP Treated Marina Ibrahim In Skudai

The clearest example is Marina Ibrahim, incumbent ADUN for Skudai since 2018.

Marina won with a huge mandate and has been one of DAP’s most vocal Johor reps on local issues, pushing for accountability and service for residents and businesses.

Yet within DAP Johor she received cold treatment compared to other ADUNs.

Less allocation for constituency work, less platform at state events, and internal pressure to move out of Skudai.

In a letter dated 30 May 2026 to DAP Johor Chairman, Marina revealed she rejected an offer made by DAP Women Chief Teo Nie Ching during a discussion on 17 May 2026 with Andrew Chen Kah Eng, Johor DAP Secretary.

The offer was for Marina to contest Tiram instead of Skudai, with a GLC chairmanship promised if she failed to win.

Marina declined the offer and announced she was quitting politics.

The letter went viral after she shared it in the DAP Johor WhatsApp group.

NST reported on 31 May 2026 that Marina declined to confirm the letter’s authenticity publicly.

This exposes DAP’s hypocrisy. Before GE14, DAP attacked political appointments to GLCs.

After taking power, GLC posts were dangled as a consolation prize to shift a vocal local rep out of her base.

The message to every Johorean: serve the people loudly and DAP will offer you an exit package.

Loyalty to the party line matters more than service to constituents.

Onn Hafiz’s Performance Track And Delivery

Compare that to MB Johor Onn Hafiz. Whether you agree with every policy or not, the man is visible.

Onn shows up for roadworks, flood projects, and local business forums.

The Machap representative speaks Johor’s language: development, investment, jobs.

Under Onn’s watch, Johor has pushed the Johor Singapore Special Economic Zone (JS SEZ) with Singapore and expanded Iskandar Malaysia investments.

Approvals for factories and logistics hubs have been accelerated, with the state government cutting red tape so projects move from announcement to construction faster.

The JS SEZ is being positioned as a game changer for skilled jobs and cross border commerce.

That is ribbon cutting and site visits, not rhetoric.

On the ground, Onn’s administration has focused on delivery voters feel daily.

Flood mitigation projects in Tebrau, Skudai and Pasir Gudang have been fast tracked after years of delay, with drainage upgrades and pump stations prioritised before the monsoon season.

Road upgrades and junction improvements in Iskandar Puteri and Johor Bahru are aimed at cutting traffic congestion that has frustrated commuters for years.

Through “Jom Niaga Johor” and dedicated business facilitation units, SMEs are getting faster approval for licences and permits, something traders say was stuck under the previous administration.

At the same time, more technical and TVET training is being aligned to JS SEZ jobs so Johoreans get first access to employment, not just foreign workers.

Onn has also made “turun padang” his signature style, turning up unannounced at markets, schools and project sites to check progress himself.

Johor Voters See Onn, Not Just His Poster

There is also stronger coordination with Singapore on water, energy and customs to make JS SEZ functional, not just another announcement.

The message from Onn is consistent: fix what is broken, approve what creates jobs, and show up where people live.

It is not just Johor. BN led state governments in Pahang and Malacca run the same playbook: infrastructure delivery, clear timelines, less political drama.

In Pahang, the ECRL alignment through Bentong, Temerloh and Kuantan is framed as a logistics boost, with the state attracting warehousing near stations.

In Malacca, tourism recovery and port expansion in Tanjung Bruas are backed by direct engagement with SMEs and traders.

Even on bread and butter issues, BN states hammer delivery. Flood mitigation, road upgrades in semi urban areas, faster processing for small business licences.

Fix the roads, approve the projects, turn up for constituents. That’s BN’s style.

Voters may be frustrated with the federal government, but they can still see the difference between an ADUN who appears at ground events and one who tweets.

The Johor Choice

If DAP loses Skudai, it will not be BN magic. It will be DAP arrogance meeting Onn’s ground game.

DAP thought perspective and slogans were enough; BN put boots on the ground and delivered projects voters can see.

Dapsy’s arrogance, DAP’s failure to serve after winning big, and the Marina case that exposed GLC hypocrisy are the story here.

Johor’s upcoming polls will be a referendum on performance versus perspective.

Right now, only BN is scoring points where it matters, at the grassroots, with spades in the ground and projects on the table. – NMH

The writer is Vice-President of Parti Cinta Malaysia and a commentator on governance and public policy. The views expressed are his own.

Also read:

PRN Johor 2026: Ujian Pertama BN Tanpa Faktor Najib

DAP Silence Exposes the Truth: UMNO was Always the Bogeyman

PKR Tears Itself Apart While In Power: The Real ‘Reformasi’?

Johor Polls: Can BN Win Big Without The Najib Factor?

The post Johor Polls: Performance Versus Perspective first appeared on NMH.

JOHOR BAHRU – Spekulasi yang berlegar sejak beberapa minggu lalu akhirnya terjawab apabila Dewan Undangan Negeri (DUN) Johor secara rasmi dibubarkan hari ini, membuka laluan kepada Pilihan Raya Negeri (PRN) Johor ke-16.

Pembubaran tersebut tidak mengejutkan ramai pemerhati politik memandangkan pelbagai petanda telah muncul sejak kebelakangan ini, termasuk pemanggilan sidang khas DUN Johor selama sehari yang mencetuskan pelbagai persoalan mengenai hala tuju politik negeri berkenaan.

PRN Johor 2022

Dalam PRN Johor 2022, Barisan Nasional (BN) mencatat kemenangan besar apabila menguasai 40 daripada 56 kerusi DUN, sekali gus membentuk kerajaan negeri dengan majoriti dua pertiga yang selesa. Pakatan Harapan (PH) memenangi 12 kerusi, manakala Perikatan Nasional (PN) memperoleh tiga kerusi dan Muda satu kerusi.

Atas kertas, BN masih dilihat sebagai pilihan utama untuk mempertahankan Johor kali ini. Jentera parti di negeri itu kekal kukuh, manakala Menteri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi turut menikmati tahap populariti yang sangat baik dalam kalangan pengundi.

Namun persoalan yang lebih besar ialah sama ada BN mampu mengulangi kemenangan luar biasa seperti pada tahun 2022.

Ini kerana landskap politik hari ini tidak lagi sama seperti empat tahun lalu.

Kelibat Mantan Perdana Menteri Menarik Perhatian

Ketika PRN Johor 2022 berlangsung, bekas Perdana Menteri Datuk Seri Najib Razak memainkan peranan yang cukup signifikan dalam kempen BN. Kehadiran beliau ketika itu berjaya menarik perhatian rakyat dan mencetuskan gelombang sokongan tersendiri yang akhirnya menyumbang kepada kemenangan besar gabungan tersebut.

Kini keadaan berbeza apabila Najib masih menjalani hukuman penjara, sekali gus menimbulkan persoalan sama ada BN mampu menghasilkan impak kempen yang sama tanpa figura yang pernah dianggap antara aset politik terbesarnya.

Lebih menarik, pembubaran DUN Johor hari ini berlaku serentak dengan sambutan Hari Keputeraan Rasmi Yang di-Pertuan Agong Sultan Ibrahim, yang juga berasal dari Johor.

Kebetulan itu turut mengundang pelbagai spekulasi dalam kalangan penyokong Najib yang sebelum ini berharap akan ada perkembangan berkaitan pengampunan diraja terhadap bekas Presiden UMNO tersebut sempena hari istimewa berkenaan. Namun setakat ini, masih belum ada sebarang pengumuman rasmi mengenainya.

Pada masa yang sama, PH juga dilihat berdepan cabaran tersendiri untuk kembali menjadi pencabar utama BN di Johor.

PH Tidak Sekuat Dahulu

Berbanding beberapa tahun lalu, momentum politik PH dilihat tidak lagi sekuat dahulu, manakala isu-isu nasional dan persepsi terhadap kerajaan perpaduan turut dijangka mempengaruhi sentimen pengundi.

Turut menjadi perhatian ialah sama ada BN akan benar-benar bertanding secara solo di Johor seperti yang pernah dibayangkan beberapa pemimpin UMNO sebelum ini. Cadangan tersebut menerima reaksi kurang senang daripada DAPSY yang melihatnya sebagai isyarat bahawa kerjasama dalam Kerajaan Perpaduan tidak semestinya akan diterjemahkan ke medan pilihan raya. Sekiranya BN memilih untuk bergerak bersendirian, PRN Johor bakal menjadi referendum kecil terhadap kekuatan sebenar parti itu selepas membentuk kerajaan bersama PH di peringkat Persekutuan, selain memberi gambaran awal mengenai kemungkinan penjajaran politik menjelang PRU16.

Bagaimana PAS?

PN pula dijangka mengambil pendekatan yang lebih berhati-hati. Terdapat cakap-cakap politik bahawa PAS mungkin tidak akan bertanding di Johor kali ini, dengan fokus lebih terarah kepada usaha membina ruang kerjasama yang lebih luas bersama UMNO menjelang Pilihan Raya Umum ke-16 (PRU16).

Sekiranya perkembangan tersebut menjadi kenyataan, ia bakal menjadi antara faktor paling menarik untuk diperhatikan sepanjang kempen PRN Johor nanti.

Apa pun, pembubaran DUN Johor menandakan bermulanya satu lagi ujian penting buat parti-parti politik utama negara.

BN mungkin masih berada di kedudukan paling selesa untuk mengekalkan kuasa di negeri itu, tetapi persoalan sama ada ia mampu meraih kemenangan besar seperti 2022 tanpa faktor Najib masih kekal menjadi tanda tanya terbesar menjelang hari pengundian. – NMH

The post PRN Johor 2026: Ujian Pertama BN Tanpa Faktor Najib first appeared on NMH.

Democratic Action Party (DAP) spent years telling non-Malay voters UMNO was racist, from Mahathir’s era to Anwar’s time as Deputy Prime Minister.

Then DAP joined hands with Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad in 2018. Now with Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim at the helm, the party is silent on the very accusations it levelled at UMNO.

Non-Malays should realise Umno was portrayed as the villain, and ask who the real beneficiaries of race politics have been.

How DAP Built The “UMNO Is Racist” Narrative

From the 1980s right through to 2018, DAP’s core campaign message to non-Malay voters was simple.

Umno was racist. Umno practised ketuanan Melayu. Umno entrenched Bumiputera quotas, NEP (New Economic Policy) targets, and Malay-first policies that excluded non-Malays from opportunity.

That accusation was aimed squarely at the Mahathir-Anwar government of 1993 to 1998.

DAP argued that UMNO’s racial policies were the reason non-Malays faced university quotas, limited government contracts, and unequal access to business licences.

The message worked. DAP won overwhelming support from Chinese and Indian voters by presenting Umno as the bogeyman blocking equality.

Every general election, DAP told non-Malays that removing Umno was the only way to dismantle race-based politics.

DAP’s Tone Changed When It Joined Mahathir

Then came 2018. the party entered government as part of Pakatan Harapan (PH) with Mahathir as Prime Minister.

The same Mahathir who, with Anwar as his Deputy and Finance Minister from 1993 to 1998, enforced the peak of NEP quotas, privatisation guidelines, and GLC expansion.

The same Mahathir whose administration DAP had spent 20 years attacking as the source of Malay dominance.

DAP’s tone shifted overnight. The attacks on Mahathir’s racial policies stopped.

Party leaders like Lim Kit Siang who once called the NEP unjust now defended “continuity” and “political stability”.

The party that built its brand on dismantling UMNO’s race policies was now sharing power with the man who designed them.

Non-Malay voters were told to accept it as “the bigger picture”.

Silence Now With Anwar In Charge

Fast forward to 2022. DAP is back in government, this time with Anwar as Prime Minister.

The same Anwar who, as Finance Minister from 1993 to 1997, tabled budgets that maintained the 30% Bumiputera equity target, public university quotas, 7% housing discounts, and Approved Permit allocations.

Budget 1997 allocated RM2.1 billion to MARA and RM1.8 billion to FELDA.

The Universities and University Colleges Act was amended in 1996 under his watch to tighten ministerial control.

These are the very policies DAP condemned for years as racist and discriminatory.

Yet since 2022, DAP has been silent. Budget 2023 and Budget 2024 continued Bumiputera equity guidelines for IPOs.

MARA funding and housing discounts remain. Public university quotas are untouched.

The Securities Commission still enforces the 30% Bumiputera equity rule.

No legislation has been tabled to dismantle a single structural pillar. No parliamentary debate has been pushed by DAP to repeal quotas.

The party that built its political capital by calling Umno racist now governs without changing what it called unjust.

That silence tells non-Malay voters everything they need to know.

Umno As The Bogeyman, But Not The Only Actor

This is where non-Malays must be honest with themselves.

UMNO was portrayed as the sole villain for decades because it was politically convenient.

UMNO, founded in 1946, did defend Malay interests and did drive race-based policy after 1969. That is fact, and it can be debated.

But DAP’s own actions show UMNO was not the only architect.

The peak enforcement period was Mahathir-Anwar, 1993 to 1998.

Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, better known as Pak Lah, from 2003 to 2009 introduced PPSMI (Pengajaran dan Pembelajaran Sains dan Matematik dalam Bahasa Inggeris, or Teaching and Learning of Science and Mathematics in English) and expanded private colleges, giving non-Malay students more options.

Datuk Seri Najib Razak from 2009 to 2018 introduced BR1M cash aid that was race-neutral, increased funding for SJKC and SJKT to RM100 million in Budget 2013, and liberalised 27 services sectors by removing Bumiputera equity rules.

Pak Lah and Najib both expanded Islamic institutions, and JAKIM’s budget grew under Najib from about RM800 million to over RM1 billion. So the Islam agenda continued under Umno.

But economically, UMNO under Pak Lah and Najib also introduced race-neutral programmes that DAP’s partners have not matched.

So Who Is The Real Villain In UMNO?

If we are talking about villains within UMNO, then we must look at leadership, not the party as a whole.

The NEP was designed under Tun Razak in 1971. It was expanded most aggressively under Mahathir from 1981 to 2003.

Anwar, as his Deputy and Finance Minister, administered it.

Those are the names tied to the peak of race-based enforcement.

But UMNO today is not led by Mahathir or Anwar.

The current UMNO leadership under Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has repeatedly stated support for reviewing race-based policies and moving toward needs-based assistance.

UMNO in the unity government is now the one being pressured by DAP to maintain quotas, while DAP itself says nothing.

The bogeyman narrative falls apart when the party accused of racism is more open to reform than the party that built its brand attacking it.

Consistency Over Slogans

DAP told non-Malays for years that Umno was the obstacle to equality.

Then it joined Mahathir and stayed silent.

Now the party sits with Anwar and stays silent again.

The policies DAP called racist are still in place, but the blame is no longer on Umno.

Non-Malay voters should realise this. UMNO was made the bogeyman because it was politically useful.

The real architects of the system were Mahathir and Anwar.

The real silence today comes from DAP.

If reform is DAP’s goal, then the demand must be placed on the leaders who designed the system and the party that now governs with them.

Malaysians deserve leaders who apply the same standard to everyone.

Not a DAP that changes its principles depending on who holds power.

Only then can we move beyond the bogeyman politics of the past. – NMH

The writer is Vice-President of Parti Cinta Malaysia and a commentator on governance and public policy. The views expressed are his own.

The post DAP Silence Exposes the Truth: UMNO was Always the Bogeyman first appeared on NMH.

While Pakatan Harapan (PH) staged a show of unity in Johor on 17 May 2026, PKR was unravelling 300 km away.

The PH Convention, themed “Tekad Madani, Harapan Rakyat”, was meant to signal readiness for state polls and GE16.

Instead, the headlines were hijacked by a press conference in Petaling Jaya.

That afternoon, Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi quit PKR, vacated Pandan and Setiawangsa, and took over Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama).

The timing was deliberate.

As Anwar spoke in Johor Bahru, his former deputy president launched a rival platform aimed at the urban, reformist voters who delivered PH’s 2022 victory.

Analysts call it the gravest challenge yet to Anwar’s administration.

As the South China Morning Post noted, ‘Rafizi’s breakaway gamble is unlikely to bring down Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim on its own, but it could still wound the ruling coalition by peeling away reformist voters who helped PH take power in 2022.’

Nurul Izzah – Holding the Centre or on the Sidelines?

The other question hanging over PKR is Nurul Izzah Anwar’s role.

Popularly known as Puteri Reformasi, she won the deputy presidency in May 2025 with 9,803 votes, defeating Rafizi in a contest billed as a generational handover.

Since her election, she has kept a low public profile.

No sparring with Rafizi, no high-profile interventions.

Instead, she has focused on party strategy, youth and women ahead of GE16, positioning herself as a unifying figure.

At the May 2025 congress, Anwar dismissed nepotism claims, telling delegates Nurul Izzah was ‘chosen by members’.

Nurul Izzah has since said her priority is “leading PKR to GE16 victory, with an emphasis on unity, women, youth and rebuilding voter trust.”

That approach carries tradeoffs.

Staying above the fray avoids framing the split as a personal feud and keeps her positioned as a potential stabiliser.

But without publicly defining her stance on the split, both supporters and critics can interpret her role.

If PKR holds its urban base, she can point to steady stewardship.

If it doesn’t, questions about her influence will resurface.

Can PKR Hold Its 31 Seats? The Numbers Say No

On paper, PKR enters GE16 with 31 parliamentary seats and key ministries.

On the ground, it looks shaky.

First, seat share is shrinking. Rafizi estimates PKR can contest only 50 federal seats this time, half of GE15, perhaps due to negotiations with BN and DAP, if any.

Second, the Malay vote remains the problem. PKR needs 35% to hold 30-40 seats. It is at 27%.

Third, incumbency is no guarantee. Merdeka Centre’s Ibrahim Suffian warns that ‘PKR’s big problem is that it has not used incumbency as the lead player in government to build a power base that will make it a lasting political institution’.

The scenarios are sobering.

Best case: PKR holds 22-25 seats by retaining Malay-belt incumbents and limiting urban losses.

Base case: It slips to 18-22 seats and becomes a junior partner in PH.

Worst case: It falls below 15 seats and risks irrelevance in Peninsular politics.

According to a leaked internal ‘GE16 Strategic Analysis’, the party is defending just seven safe seats.

Even Anwar’s Tambun seat is marginal, while vice-presidents Amirudin Shari and R. Ramanan’s Gombak and Sungai Buloh seats are in the red zone.

PKR is on the defensive across most seats, forcing it to concentrate resources and drop weak divisions as Bersama and PN target the same urban Malay base.

Reformasi in Government: The Identity Crisis Returns

This is not just about seats.

It is about what PKR stands for, now that it is the party of government.

For 20 years, Reformasi was a movement outside the gates.

Now it is inside, delivering cash aid, wage hikes and stability while being blamed for the rising cost of living.

Rafizi’s pitch with Bersama is simple: ‘Existing political parties can no longer respond to issues of rising cost of living, employment and salary mismatch.’

He called it a ‘kamikaze’ for Gen Z, Gen Alpha and Gen Beta who want a choice outside the PH-BN duopoly.

If PKR bleeds urban seats to Bersama, Anwar can’t blame the opposition. He’ll be defending a party that lost its reason for existing the moment it won power.

And if voters decide that in GE16, Anwar won’t just lose seats. He’ll lose the story that put him in Putrajaya.

PKR at the Crossroads

PKR’s split is less about personalities and more about an identity crisis deferred too long.

Anwar needed Rafizi’s machinery to win in 2022.

Now that machinery has left, Nurul Izzah must prove PKR can win without it.

The party’s 31 seats are not safe. They depend on whether PH holds the urban-reformist vote and whether Anwar’s cash politics wins back the Malay ground PKR has lost.

If it cannot, GE16 will show that PKR’s Reformasi brand was always stronger outside government than inside it.

That would be the most damning verdict of all. – NMH

The writer is Vice-president of Parti Cinta Malaysia and a commentator on governance and public policy. The views expressed are his own.

The post PKR Tears Itself Apart While In Power: The Real ‘Reformasi’? first appeared on NMH.

FOR many months, there have been stories and rumours about new political parties being formed, whether members of the current ‘Madani’ coalition remain intact or face the voters separately, and when the general election (GE16) will actually be called.

Over the last weekend, these questions have been firmly answered.

Now Malaysians can see a clear electoral landscape forming and see how Malaysia’s political direction may look.

For the last month, there have been several direct hints about Umno’s intentions concerning the ‘Madani’ coalition.

Last month, 14 Negeri Sembilan Umno state assemblymen withdrew support for the current PKR Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun.

This action greatly destabilised the state government, sending rumblings to the federal Madani coalition in Putrajaya. Then late last week, the Johor Menteri Besar said that Umno plans to contest all 56 state seats solo.

This abruptly spelt the end of the effectiveness of the ‘Madani’ coalition. It’s now clear that Umno in both Melaka and Johor are planning to call elections in each state in the next four months.

GE16 pressure on Anwar

It’s also very clear that Umno is already in deep preparation for elections, and this is putting pressure upon the prime minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, to call an early election, perhaps in the next few months.

On Sunday, Anwar said that a snap general election could take place if cracks continue to form within the unity government.

On another front, former ministers Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad both announced they are taking over Parti Bersama Malaysia and resigned from PKR.

Also present at the announcement were PKR MPs Wong Chen (Subang), Datuk Muhammad Bakhtiar Wan Chik (Balik Pulau), Rodziah Ismail (Ampang), Zahir Hassan (Wangsa Maju) and Lee Chean Chung (Petaling Jaya).

However, they have not made any formal commitments either way at this stage.

In another move on the Perikatan Nasional side, PAS announced the current Terengganu Menteri Besar, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri Mokhtar, as the new leader of the opposition.

Samsuri, known as a moderate, now puts PAS at the head of PN, which has long been suspected, due to the current political infighting in Bersatu.

The new political fault-lines

The weekend’s events now show a much clearer position of where politics will go in the peninsula.

PN under Samsuri is expected to showcase ‘PAS as a safe choice’ for voters.

PAS can be expected to go back to the days of the late Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat and Datuk Fadzil Mohd Noor, where it will show itself as an alternative to ‘Madani’.

More time will show the PAS’s approach to the coming election.

Umno is preparing to repackage itself as a competent party ready to run government as a ‘professional administration’ based on history and traditions.

There are strong rumours that a group within Umno is working very hard to gain a full pardon for Datuk Seri Najib Razak, who would be a ‘Trump card’.

Many in Umno believe that a free Najib would be able to make inroads back into the Malay heartlands once again.

One can only assume that Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi’s Parti Bersama Malaysia will attempt to outdo ‘reformasi’ Pakatan Harapan.

This appears to be their strategy to entice potential voter support from citizens who were planning not to vote in the coming GE, which is believed to be plenty.

Rafizi and Nik Nazmi

The key for Rafizi and Nik Nazmi will be to quickly snowball the party membership with ‘high calibre’ recruits to convince voters to come out and support the ‘old reformasi culture’ which it intends to hijack from PH.

The bottom line for Parti Bersama Malaysia will be having many personalities who bring trust.

Released electoral analysis reports have already indicated that PKR will be in for a very challenging election, where the same could be said for the other two components, DAP and Amanah.

The first important mission will be to mend the parties within PH back together and prevent the DAP from considering going alone, which many members want.

PKR must then develop a very sincere strategy conveying a narrative that it acted on behalf of a ‘unity government’ set-up and affirmed by the YDPA back in November 2022.

PKR must clearly argue that a fully mandated PH government would do things very differently.

It’s going to be very difficult for political pundits to pick any clear winners in the coming general election, at least on the Peninsula side.

One will have to expect mostly four-cornered fights in each seat, and how the vote dissipates among candidates will be very difficult to predict. Personalities will be very important.

Once again, there will be another coalition after the coming election. No one today can predict what it will look like. – NMH

Editor’s Note: This article first appeared in The Vibes. Re-published with permission from the writer.

Also read:

PKR Fracture Proves the Reformasi Promise Was Never More Than a Slogan

Johor Polls: Can BN Win Big Without The Najib Factor?

Jho Low vs Murray Hunter: A Question of Priorities

The post GE16: Electoral Landscape Looking Clearer As Polls Draw Nearer first appeared on NMH.

The announcement of Barisan Nasional (BN) Johor to go solo and contest all 56 seats in the country’s southernmost state has reopened one of Malaysian politics’ oldest questions: can the coalition win on its own machinery and brand, or did its 2022 landslide victory depended on a single man now behind bars?

On 16 May 2026, Johor Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi declared that BN would go it alone, framing it as “a clear offer to the people that we are ready to continue to form a stable, strong government and fully serve to the development of the state”. This was later followed up with a statement by the Barisan Nasional Hq.

The response from Pakatan Harapan (PH) was immediate.

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said PH was prepared to contest all 56 seats too, and warned that a solo BN push amounted to “betrayal” of the federal unity government.

The 2022 Playbook Is Hard To Replicate

In March 2022, BN swept Johor with 40 of 56 seats on just 43% of the vote.

The victory was widely attributed to a mix of low turnout, a divided opposition, and what Umno leaders openly called the “Najib factor”.

Former Prime Minister Najib Razak campaigned heavily, and his social media reach helped mobilise rural Malay voters at a time when the party was battered nationally.

That advantage no longer exists. For now, at least.

Najib has been in prison since August 2022, and for now, BN cannot deploy him on the ground or as a campaign drawcard.

The party’s own acting president, Mohamad Hasan, acknowledged during the 2022 election run that Najib’s contributions were “significant” to BN’s wins.

Complicating things for PH are renewed reports that Najib may receive a full pardon on the King’s birthday.

Several foreign news agencies have reported speculation around the timing, though no official confirmation has been issued by Istana Negara.

If the pardon materialises before polling, the Najib factor remains and it would reintroduce the single variable that BN has been planning to campaign.

What’s Changed On The Ground

The arithmetic is different. In 2022, PN, Pejuang and Warisan split the anti-BN vote, letting BN win many seats with under 50%. With PH now planning a straight fight in all 56 seats, that split is unlikely to repeat.

DAP’s Ong Kian Ming says BN wants the poll to “build momentum for GE16”, but it faces a more consolidated PH. State chairman Aminolhuda Hassan has called to “bury” BN again. PH’s urban base remains intact and will argue for state-level checks on BN.

That leaves BN exposed. Defending its record without PH’s coattails while governing with PH in Putrajaya creates a contradiction.

As Anwar put it, “Do not threaten us or move toward betrayal”.

The Incumbency Edge Remains

BN is not starting from zero.

Onn Hafiz has cultivated a relatively clean, technocratic image, and Johor’s economy has shown resilience post-pandemic.

Analysts say the MB’s best asset in the absence of Najib is his personal standing.

Francis Hutchinson of ISEAS has previously observed that PH performs better when state and federal polls are held together; a standalone Johor election favours the incumbent.

Most Probable Outcome

BN will likely hold Johor, but it probably won’t repeat the 40-seat landslide it had in 2022, unless the pardon speculation turns into reality before polling day.

With PH now planning to contest all 56 seats alone and Najib currently off the campaign trail, BN would need to keep that same 43% vote share against a less divided opponent.

The expectation remains that BN stays in power, but with a smaller majority, barring a late political shift.

The real test is whether BN can prove it still has a narrative beyond personalities.

If it cannot, Johor 2026 may mark the end of the idea that Umno/BN can win nationally on nostalgia alone. – NMH

The writer is the Vice-president of Parti Cinta Malaysia and a commentator on governance and public policy. The views expressed are his own.

The post Johor Polls: Can BN Win Big Without The Najib Factor? first appeared on NMH.

The latest split in PKR should surprise no one who has been watching the party since 2018.

On Sunday (17 May 2026), Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad announced they are quitting PKR, vacating their parliamentary seats.

The duo declared taking over Parti Bersama Malaysia (Bersama) as their new political vehicle.

Six other PKR MPs appeared alongside them at the launch. More may follow.

The split is personal as well as political. Rafizi’s resignation is effectively a break with Prime Minister and PKR President Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, the man he once helped bring back to power.

The PKR Strategist

For years Rafizi was seen as Anwar’s strategist and heir apparent.

Rafizi’s departure, alongside Nik Nazmi, signals that the working relationship at the heart of PKR has collapsed.

When the former deputy president publicly says the party has abandoned its purpose, it undermines Anwar’s authority directly.

What is striking is not that two former ministers have left, but the reasons they gave for leaving.

Both argued that PKR has abandoned the very principles it was founded upon.

For a party that built its brand on integrity, accountability and institutional reform, that is a damning indictment from within when it comes from two men who were, until recently, at the heart of PKR’s leadership.

Rafizi was deputy president and economy minister. Nik Nazmi was vice-president and minister for natural resources and environmental sustainability.

If even they no longer believe in PKR’s direction, why should the public?

The End Of The Reformist Pretence

When Pakatan Harapan (PH) won in 2018, it did so on the promise of a “New Malaysia”.

Eight years on, the language remains, but the practice has changed.

Rafizi and Nik Nazmi have been the most consistent internal critics of that shift.

Since losing their party posts in May 2025, they have warned that PKR is increasingly reliant on fear-based narratives and elite bargaining rather than structural change.

Their decision to leave, and to frame it as a return to “basics”, confirms what many voters already suspect: the reformist agenda has been shelved in favour of staying in power.

This is not simply about personalities or internal party elections.

It is about whether PKR still has a coherent purpose beyond managing the status quo.

The evidence suggests it does not.

A Coalition Held Together by Convenience

PH today is less a political movement than an arrangement held together by Anwar’s premiership.

Remove the glue of his leadership, and the contradictions between PKR, DAP, Amanah and Umno/Barisan Nasional (BN) become impossible to ignore.

PKR, DAP and Amanah govern alongside Umno, a party they once vowed to replace.

The ideological contradictions are obvious, and they are becoming harder to paper over.

The creation of Bersama under Rafizi and Nik Nazmi is a direct response to that contradiction.

They argue that the reformist space cannot be occupied by a coalition that has absorbed the very practices it once condemned.

Whether Bersama succeeds electorally is a separate question.

What matters is that it exposes PKR’s central weakness: it no longer represents a clear alternative.

For BN, this moment is an opportunity to restate what it stands for.

BN’s record is not without fault, but it has always been a coalition built on stability, continuity and a clear federal structure.

Voters know what BN is. They know its constituent parties, its track record in government, and its approach to national unity and economic management.

In contrast, PH now looks like a collection of factions with no shared direction.

The Cost Of Political Fragmentation

The immediate parliamentary impact of these resignations is limited.

PH retains a comfortable majority in the Dewan Rakyat, and the Speaker will decide whether by-elections are called in Pandan and Setiawangsa.

But the longer-term risk is fragmentation of the political centre.

If more PKR MPs follow suit, PH will be hollowed out.

That would leave the coalition weaker, more dependent on its partners, and less able to set policy.

For voters, it means more instability and more horse-trading after the next general election.

BN has always argued that Malaysia needs a government with the mandate and discipline to make difficult decisions.

Reform cannot be delivered by a coalition that spends its time managing internal dissent and negotiating with partners who have fundamentally different objectives.

What This Means For GE16

The next general election will be fought on trust as much as on policy.

Can voters trust PH to deliver reform when its own coalition leaders say it has abandoned that path?

Can they trust a new party built around two former ministers to build a national platform from scratch?

Or will they look back to the coalition that, for all its flaws, provided decades of political and economic stability?

BN should not assume that PH’s problems translate automatically into BN gains. It should recognise that the political ground is shifting.

Many Malaysians who supported PH in 2018 are now disillusioned.

They are looking for a platform that is consistent, experienced and not defined by infighting.

BN has that platform. It has the machinery, the local presence and the record in government.

What BN needs now is the discipline to present a clear, forward-looking agenda that speaks to those disillusioned voters without indulging in the same blame politics that has paralysed PH.

The Bottom Line

The departure of Rafizi and Nik Nazmi is not just another PKR internal crisis.

It is a public break with Anwar and a public admission that the reformist project within PH has failed.

BN’s role is not to gloat, but to offer a credible alternative. Stability, national unity and pragmatic governance are not outdated ideas.

In a political environment defined by fracture and uncertainty, they are precisely what many Malaysians are looking for again.

If BN can articulate that message clearly and avoid the distractions of personality politics, GE16 will be a contest between a leadership that has lost its original purpose and one that remembers why it was built in the first place. – NMH

The writer is the Vice-president of Parti Cinta Malaysia and a commentator on governance and public policy. The views expressed are his own.

The post PKR Fracture Proves the Reformasi Promise Was Never More Than a Slogan first appeared on NMH.

Commentary And Analysis . . . The Negeri Sembilan Constitution, under the BFD (Basic Features Doctrine) which permeates the Federal Constitution, cannot be amended on the Four Undang. They, based on Adat as the first law in international law, exist.

Negeri Sembilan’s system exists because Orang Asli luak — autonomous river territories – – needed chiefs, Minangkabau migrants needed legitimacy, and four of those chiefs decided to hire a king in 1773.

The Undang are older than the monarchy.

The monarchy is older than the state constitution.

Emergency

The Orang Asli are older than all of them.

In 2026, all three histories are colliding in one Dewan opening.

Negeri Sembilan …

That’s why the crisis involving the Negeri Sembilan Assembly looks unsolvable: the wiring has three eras in it. Orang Asli territorial adat from 1300, Minangkabau elective kingship from 1773, and British written constitution from 1957. They don’t always agree.

Why This Matters for the 2026 Crisis.

Undang . . .

When the four Undang claimed on 19 April 2026 that they could “depose” Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir they were invoking the oldest logic in the system: the Undang created the Yamtuan in 1773, so the Undang can uncreate him.

When Menteri Besar (MB) Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun claimed Undang Mubarak was removed 17 April, he was invoking the modern constitutional logic: only DKU can remove an Undang, and the YDPA Besar chairs the DKU (Dewan Keadilan dan Undang).

Both are pulling on different strands of the same rope. The Minangkabau strand says Undang are kingmakers. The constitutional strand says DKU is supreme. The Orang Asli strand underneath says power comes from the luak, not from the palace or the MB’s office.

March Of History

How Negeri Sembilan’s System Originated — and Why It’s in “Orang Asli Country”.

Negeri Sembilan’s adat and constitutional system didn’t start with the Minangkabau. It started with the Orang Asli. The four Undang system is a Minangkabau overlay on a much older Orang Asli political order.

Based on historical research, here’s how it happened.

Before Minangkabau . . .

Before the Minangkabau: Orang Asli luak

From roughly 1000–1400 CE, the interior of what’s now Negeri Sembilan was settled by Temuan and Semelai Orang Asli. They didn’t have King. They had luak. Each luak was run by a Batin or Penghulu chosen by custom from senior families. Disputes were settled by muafakat (consensus) in a balai. Land was communal, matrilineal, and passed through women.

These luak covered the valleys of the Linggi, Muar, and Serting rivers. The names survive today: Sungei Ujong, Jelebu, Johol, Rembau. Those four were the largest and most organised Orang Asli luak. They already had chiefs, boundaries, and councils before any outsiders arrived.

After Minangkabau . . .

Minangkabau Migration: 1400s–1600s

Minangkabau from Sumatra began migrating across the Melaka Straits from the 15th century, especially after the fall of Melaka in 1511. They moved inland to escape Portuguese/Johor control and because the interior was good for paddy and tin.

They found Orang Asli already living in organised luak.

Instead of conquest, they did what Minangkabau do: merantau and assimilate.

Minangkabau also practiced matrilineal adat, Adat Perpatih, which matched Orang Asli custom. Marriage between Minangkabau men and Orang Asli women was common. Over two to three generations, the ruling families of the four luak became Minangkabau by culture and language, but their authority derived from the original Orang Asli territorial structure.

That’s why the titles “Undang” are not royal.

They’re territorial chiefs. “Undang” comes from undang-undang viz. the one who upholds the law of the luak. The chief’s power came from the suku in the valley, not from a sultan.

Why Negeri Sembilan Needed a Ruler: 1773 . . .

By the 1700s the four luak kept fighting each other and were being raided by Bugis and Johor. No luak chief could claim supremacy over the others because Adat Perpatih rejects central kingship. But they needed external legitimacy to deal with Johor, Selangor, and the Dutch.

So in 1773 the four Undang sent envoys to Pagaruyung in Minangkabau, Sumatra, and asked for a prince of royal blood to become their Yamtuan. Pagaruyung sent Raja Melewar. He landed at Penajis in Rembau.

The deal was explicit: the Undang elect the Yamtuan, and the Yamtuan rules only with their consent. He could not own land, tax at will, or appoint chiefs. He was a referee and foreign minister, not an absolute monarch. That contract became the basis of Negeri Sembilan’s constitution. It’s still there in 2026.

This is why Negeri Sembilan is the only state with an elective monarchy. The Undang predate the Ruler by 300+ years. The Ruler exists because the Undang created the job.

Orang Asli In The System . . .

After Raja Melewar, the Minangkabau aristocracy slowly marginalised the Orang Asli.

By British times, 1874–1895, the British recognised the four Undang as the “Malay chiefs” and ignored the Orang Asli Batin. The Orang Asli became anak buah — subjects — in their own ancestral luak.

But the structure still carries Orang Asli DNA:
Matrilineal adat: Both Temuan and Minangkabau pass clan and land through women.

That’s why Negeri Sembilan’s Adat Perpatih is matrilineal while the rest of Malaya is patrilineal Adat Temenggung.

Luak boundaries: Sungei Ujong, Jelebu, Johol, Rembau follow the old Orang Asli river territories. The names are pre-Minangkabau.

Election principle: Orang Asli Batin were chosen by mufakat of elders. The Undang are still elected by the Lembaga and Buapak of each luak, not appointed by the Ruler. That’s a direct survival.

No divine kingship: Orang Asli had no daulat.

Minangkabau Adat Perpatih also rejects daulat.

So Negeri Sembilan’s Yamtuan has no daulat — he’s “Yang di-Pertuan Besar,” the one made great by the people, not “Sultan,” the one with power from God.

British Reshaping: 1874–1957 . . .

The British cemented the Undang system because it suited Indirect Rule. The 1898 Jelebu succession dispute went to the British Resident. The 1948 Federation Agreement and 1957 NS Constitution wrote the four Undang + Tunku Besar Tampin + YDPA Besar into law as the Dewan Keadilan dan Undang (DKU).

The British also stripped the Orang Asli of political status.

Under the Aboriginal Peoples Act 1954, Batin became welfare officers, not chiefs.

The “Orang Asli country” in Negeri Sembilan has a Malay adat system built on top of it, with the Orang Asli politically underneath. — NMH

The post Negeri Sembilan: Emergency Cannot Remove Four Undang first appeared on NMH.