The Rise And Rise Of Barisan Nasional

They thought Barisan Nasional was finished. They were wrong. After its historic defeat in GE14, the coalition many had written off is once again finding its footing — and its voice. From the stunning wins in Johor and Negeri Sembilan to the growing unease within the Unity Government, Hasnah Rahman and Emma Harith look at the rise of Barisan Nasional, its renewed confidence and the new generation that could determine whether this is a comeback — or the beginning of something bigger.

It began with defeat. It may yet end with a comeback.

There was a time, not very long ago, when Barisan Nasional (BN) looked like a political relic.

GE14 in 2018 was supposed to be the end of BN as Malaysians had known it. After six decades in power, the coalition was swept out by Pakatan Harapan (PH), and the country was suddenly introduced to the intoxicating promise of a “New Malaysia”.

For many, it was supposed to be a new beginning.

For others, it became something very different.

What followed was political upheaval — governments rising and falling, defections, realignments and, after GE15, the unlikely marriage of old rivals in the Unity Government.

But beneath all the manoeuvring, something else was happening.

BN was learning how to survive.

And more importantly, it was learning how to come back.

Today, the signs are no longer subtle.

BN’s stunning performance in Johor in July — winning 48 of 56 state seats and a two-thirds majority — was more than a state election victory. It was a psychological breakthrough.

Three weeks later came Negeri Sembilan, where BN won 18 of 36 seats and returned to power after eight years, forming the state government with PN support.

Two states.

Two confidence-boosting results.

And suddenly, the conversation has changed.

BN is no longer behaving like a coalition fighting merely for survival.

It is beginning to look like one preparing for the next battle.

From “New Malaysia” to Political Fatigue

Perhaps the biggest irony of the post-GE14 story is that the forces that were supposed to bury BN may have contributed to its resurrection.

The collapse of the first PH government, the Sheraton Move and successive changes of administration left many voters exhausted.

And Malays, above all, are loyal to a fault.

For a sizeable section of the Malay electorate, 2018 meant seeing the traditional political establishment dismantled, familiar leaders prosecuted and the country plunged into prolonged political uncertainty.

Najib Razak became the most potent symbol of that rupture.

The former prime minister was convicted in the SRC International case and subsequently faced further convictions in the larger 1MDB proceedings. He remains in prison.

Yet politically, Najib has never disappeared.

For his supporters, he has become a symbol of what they regard as selective justice and political persecution.

And the pressure has not ended with Najib.

More BN-era leaders are finding themselves in court, with cases involving Tabung Haji and Felda among those drawing attention, and more cases potentially to come.

Whether these cases are viewed as accountability or political persecution, their cumulative effect within BN is difficult to ignore.

The more its leaders come under legal pressure, the more the coalition’s members appear to be closing ranks.

And that solidarity extends beyond UMNO. For the component parties, it can reinforce the sense that BN’s survival — and their own political future within it — are intertwined.

The old BN instinct of standing together may be returning.

The Unity Government’s Uncomfortable Contradiction

When BN entered the Unity Government with PH after GE15, it was widely seen as a marriage of necessity.

For Anwar Ibrahim, it provided the numbers and stability needed to govern.

For BN, it provided something equally valuable: time.

Time to regroup. Rebuild its machinery. Reconnect with voters. And remind Malaysians that BN was still there.

The irony is difficult to miss.

The coalition that was supposed to be transformed by the post-GE14 order was given the opportunity to rebuild from within it.

That does not mean BN is about to leave the Unity Government.

But politically, the distance between BN and PH increasingly looks wider than the Cabinet table suggests.

At the UMNO general assembly today, Zahid made the distinction plain: BN is in the Unity Government, but it is not the same thing as being in the “Madani Government”.

It may sound semantic.

Politically, it is anything but.

It is a reminder that BN has its own identity, its own constituency and, increasingly, its own political calculations.

Johor Changed the Mood

If one moment shifted BN’s confidence, it was Johor.

UMNO won 36 seats, MCA eight and MIC four. PH managed eight, while PN and the other parties were shut out.

The message was clear: BN could still win — and win big.

Then came Negeri Sembilan, where its return to power through an arrangement with PN reinforced the momentum.

For Zahid, the results could hardly have come at a better time.

BN’s political stock is rising, even as PH grapples with the difficult task of defending its reform credentials, managing internal contradictions and keeping a sprawling coalition together.

And then there is Najib.

The Najib Question Refuses to go Away

This week, Najib submitted a fresh application for clemency.

The Federal Territories Pardons Board met today, but his application was deferred to a future meeting.

There was no Najib pardon today.

But politically, the issue had already brought the fault line between UMNO and PH into sharp focus.

PH said those convicted of corruption and abuse of power should serve their full sentences. UMNO pushed back against what it saw as an attempt to prejudge the constitutional powers of the King.

Zahid’s position was more carefully calibrated: leave the matter to the King and the Pardons Board.

But there was little ambiguity about Najib’s emotional significance to UMNO’s grassroots.

At the assembly, Zahid spoke of expecting “good news”.

He also acknowledged another figure deeply woven into the Najib story.

When he asked Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor to stand in the Dewan Merdeka, the gesture was about more than protocol.

It was a public acknowledgement of a woman who remains deeply woven into the history and emotional landscape of UMNO’s grassroots.

For those who believe Najib was treated unfairly, her presence — and Zahid’s decision to recognise her — was significant.

It was a reminder that Najib and Rosmah remain part of the emotional memory of a significant section of UMNO, and that their story is far from over in the hearts and minds of their supporters.

The Quiet Separation

Perhaps that is where BN’s revival becomes most interesting.

There has been no dramatic announcement that BN is leaving the Unity Government.

No grand declaration of war.

No political divorce.

Instead, there appears to be something quieter: a psychological separation.

BN can remain in government while increasingly behaving like a coalition preparing for life beyond it.

Johor gave it confidence.

Negeri Sembilan reinforced it.

The Najib issue has energised its grassroots.

And every disagreement with PH provides another opportunity to remind supporters that BN is not PH.

That distinction is becoming increasingly important.

BN no longer needs to convince its supporters that it can survive.

It needs to convince them that it can win.

And that is a very different political proposition.

The Next Question: Can BN Become More Than UMNO?

For decades, BN’s strength lay in bringing different communities and political traditions under one umbrella.

UMNO was its dominant force, certainly. But MCA, MIC and the other component parties were never merely decorative. They gave BN a genuinely multi-ethnic political machine with roots in different communities.

Johor offered a glimpse of that again.

MCA doubled its representation from four seats to eight. MIC won four.

They were part of the victory.

And now another part of BN’s revival deserves attention: the emergence of a younger generation of leaders.

But this is not necessarily a generation seeking to leave the past behind.

Quite the opposite.

Many grew up during Najib’s years as prime minister. They watched his rise, his fall and his transformation into “Bossku”. For many, he remains a political role model.

His influence also has a remarkable digital dimension.

An ILHAM Centre analysis in May found Najib to be Malaysia’s most followed political figure across six major social-media platforms, with 9.35 million followers, including 4.6 million on Facebook.

For BN’s young Turks, social media is their natural political battleground — and Najib remains one of the most powerful figures occupying that space.

So “young” does not necessarily mean a break with Najib or the old BN.

It may mean something quite different: a younger generation carrying forward a political legacy they still believe in, using the tools and language of a different Malaysia.

That is the story Emma Harith will explore in Part Two — the component parties, new faces and young leaders who may determine whether BN’s resurgence lasts.

Because if BN really is rising again, the story is no longer simply about whether UMNO can regain power.

It is about whether Barisan Nasional can reinvent itself without losing the identity that made its supporters loyal to it in the first place.

For now, one thing is increasingly difficult to deny.

The coalition that was supposed to have died in 2018 is very much alive.

After Johor and Negeri Sembilan, it is no longer merely trying to survive.

It is beginning to believe it can come back.

Perhaps that is the real story of the rise — and rise — of Barisan Nasional. – NMH