Sabah and Sarawak, always against Anwar Ibrahim, would probably find it difficult accepting another Decree by Agong on the prime ministership if the incumbent remains in the saddle!
Comment And Analysis . . . It isn’t rocket science that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, as caretaker Prime Minister, will probably get first chance as incumbent after GE16 in late 2027, unless Sabah and Sarawak disregard Agong’s Decree.
Indeed it can be proven, albeit by peering at the crystal ball and/or reading the tea leaves, that no one can be seen as winning any GE in Malaysia after the ruling BN (Barisan Nasional) fell in 2018. If caretaker Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak had been invited by the Istana after GE14 on 9 May 2018, history may have turned out differently.
The local Ummah in Malaya, after more than 60 years, cannot put the votes under one political platform. All Muslim votes under one political platform has so far only benefited the small group in power.
Anwar, sacked from the Federal Cabinet in 1998, promised reformasi (reforms) but may have since defected. He was clearly the not so obvious establishment, masquerading as anti-establishment, but now fully with the establishment as the “Emperor with no clothes”.
The crystal ball comes in again.
The Indian diaspora in Malaya — kingmakers in 67 parliamentary seats in 2008 — will stay at home if not voting for unity government. It would be unthinkable if they vote against unity government. There are fears that the allegedly anti-multicultural Opposition may win by default.
The Chinese diaspora in Malaysia and Orang Asal (original people) and Orang Asli (aboriginal people) and Others can only opt for unity government as well.
Anwar Ibrahim
Again, Agong will come in after GE16 and Decree unity government under Anwar Ibrahim, risking the possibility that Sabah and Sarawak may not go along unless they can pick the Prime Minister-designate. It’s no longer about indulging in wishful thinking, and living on hope, that the people on the other side of the Southeast Asia Sea see no reason why Najib cannot replace Anwar.
Najib in jail may be out of the way for now but not for long. He would be back if we look at the allegedly flawed letter on 29 January 2024 by the Pardons’ Board. He has 4.6m Followers in FB alone.
We have gone through Najib’s cases many times in NMH. So, we will not plagiarise our Articles for filling the space.
The story on Najib’s plight in jail, under arbitrary detention as political detainee, can be read in the following links:
If there’s one issue which has disqualified Anwar from the premiership, it’s the open admission that he was virtually hiding Agong’s Decree dated 29 January 2024 on placing Najib under house arrest.
The Decree was acknowledgement by the head of state, albeit belatedly, that Najib’s conviction wasn’t perfected in law for perfection in law, and that in being jailed unrepresented on 23 August 2022, he was political prisoner under arbitrary detention.
Anwar’s open admission takes centrestage in Najib’s 2nd Affidavit for judicial review on house arrest. In any other democratic nation, Anwar would have been impeached and/or hounded out of office by the court of public opinion.
Sabah And Sarawak
The economy, which may get whole lot worse before it gets any better, if at all, remains the next biggest worry in Sabah and Sarawak, actually the whole country, about the failing unity government under Anwar.
Anwar, based on his own words and media coverage including in the social media, isn’t subject matter expert on counting. Sarawak, uniquely in Malaysia, remains all about the economy and there are doubts that Anwar can deliver. Sabah isn’t far from Sarawak on the economy, although it’s more concerned about Borneo rights.
Speculative Activities
Speculative activities like the stock market and forex, Anwar’s pre-occupation so far, are not the real economy. They don’t produce real wealth expressed in GDP growth and growing GDP.
The production of real wealth, in the form of goods and services, makes up the real economy for GDP growth and growing GDP.
Sunak And Anwar
Even subject matter expert on counting, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, faces uphill task on managing the economy.
True, there’s no basis for comparison between Sunak and Anwar.
Anwar probably loves the sound of his own voice as seen from him harping on Madani, Madani, Madani and many other irrelevant chants.
Bad News
The unity government may have subject matter experts in counting. However, they are probably keeping themselves safe. They can’t be telling Anwar anything lest their heads roll for bringing bad news to the boss.
Anwar can only end subsidies for diesel for example, if the advisors are doing their work, i.e. the government managing the supply side of the economy and keeping inflation within the ideal 2 per cent per annum.
Also, the government can only end poverty by pumping money directly every month into the pockets of those living below the poverty line. The new money would not create added inflation if the government manages the supply side of the economy.
New money would grow the consumer economy which makes up 65 per cent in Malaysia. In the US, it’s 75 per cent, above 50 per cent in India and below 50 per cent in China.
The China story may be over, yet Malaysia puts all its eggs in one basket, instead of plugging like Singapore into the Indian economy as well. However, relations between India and Malaysia have never been worse. Modi, being strong leader and nationalist, will not allow Malaysia getting away with anti-India statements.
India isn’t just about supplying Malaysia with onion, rice and tourists and buying palm oil. It can take the products of SME in Malaysia for the Indian market alone. India’s economy, unlike China’s, remains 80 per cent internal. It’s world of its own but left unexplored by Malaysia.
Malaysia probably has economists coming out of its ears. We don’t see any econometrists among them. Econometrics remains combination of economics, mathematics and statistics. We can find econometrists at the IMF and World Bank. AI has made the work easier.
Economics has become much more complex in the wake of econometrics, multiple phenomenon like globalisation, so-called climate mitigation challenges, challenges in the global supply chain and international logistics, FDI inflows, hot money, war for the sake of war, the rise of India in the wake of China being grave threat for the global security framework, the failure of Big Pharma as seen in the pandemic and India’s response on the phenomenon.
British Policy
Anwar can be explained if we look at what British Resident General Frank Swettenham expressed that native Malays must be controlled as they did with all races and migrants across their colony.
That became the cornerstone of British policy in Malaya. The policy was continued after Merdeka, in 1957, by MIC and MCA working with Umno. It was the British who encouraged MIC, MCA, Umno and NUPW as they prepared for exit.
The MIC-MCA-Umno-NUPW arrangement fell apart by GE14 in 2018 when BN (Barisan Nasional) observed the three great principles in the breach i.e. decision making by consensus (no voice against), power-sharing in the form of seats and government positions, and collective responsibility (all for one and one for all).
The Cabinet System, by GE14, also observed the three great principles in breach. It explains why Najib’s cases are all about abuse of power, conflict of interest, and criminal breach of trust.
In fact, the Cabinet System degenerated into dictatorial prime ministerial system during Mahathir’s time. Najib told the media, after GE14, “we all learnt from Mahathir. He was the Guru”.
Reformasi
Mahathir allegedly observed the affirmative action programmes in the breach for accumulating impossible wealth. Therein the matter lies with the MACC going after him and family.
Article 153 was in fact rendered redundant in 1972 when the 15 year sunset clause, providing for temporary discrimination under Article 8 and Article 4 and Conference of Rulers, expired. All clauses facilitating Article 153 have also been rendered redundant.
Anwar publicly said that he would defend Article 153.
Yet, this same man had been harping on reformasi since 1998 when he was sacked from the Cabinet for alleged incompetence in dealing with the 1997/1998 Asian Currency Crisis.
Article 4, under reformasi, needs amendment so that redundant clauses were automatically dropped without the intervention of Parliament and/or the court of law and the Conference of Rulers.
Checks And Balances
The government, during Mahathir’s time, also did away with checks and balances in the form of procedures, due diligence and forensic accounting on the money trail from the public treasury on inflated government contracts and being party for illegalities viz. money laundering activities.
The related matter, under the MACC Act 2009, was “deriving personal benefits” in the form of bribery and corruption arising from abuse of power, conflict of interest and criminal breach of trust.
The Sea of Southeast
Trump said that “India remains the only nation on Earth which can put China in its place”.
Yet, in a contradiction in terms, Malaysia looks the other way when China encroaches into its waters in the Southeast Asia Sea. The sea off Borneo, and between Sarawak and Malaya, lies long way off from south China. India’s blue water navy can be present as in Vietnam since 2011.
Pandemic
Health Minister Datuk Dzulkefly Ahmad, for example, said the MoH (Ministry of Health) has complete list of side-effects caused by the vaccine for the novel Corona virus. Anwar has never commented on the Health Minister confirming that “Malaysia was now in the living with Covid-19 phase”.
The people, Anwar or no Anwar, can contact the nearest government hospital and help protect the economic recovery from the “living with Covid-19 phase”.
Self-proclaimed leading Independent candidate in US 2024, scientist, and systems engineer Dr Shiva Ayyadurai, untouchable from India in his own words, said the issue remains public policy on helping build up the resilience of the immune system in fending off anything thrown at it. — NMH
Longtime Borneo watcher Joe Fernandez has been writing for many years on both sides of the Southeast Asia Sea. He should not be mistaken for a namesake formerly with the Daily Express in Kota Kinabalu. JF keeps a Blog under FernzTheGreat on the nature of human relationships.
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